Gulf states must rethink trillion-dollar defence in light of US-Iran war, says report

30 October 2026 at 15:49

IISS study questions overreliance on American support and ‘overdependence on expensive, high-end systems’

Gulf states are going to have to reconfigure their trillion-dollar defences given the damage inflicted on their economies and the questionable continued value of US bases in the face of Iranian attack, according to a study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The report says that in the weeks before the 8 April ceasefire, 12 regional states, overwhelmingly in the Gulf, faced 4,670 Iranian one-way attack drones and more than 1,400 ballistic missiles. Nearly half were aimed at the United Arab Emirates. Although the vast majority were repelled, one estimate of the damage to energy infrastructure cited by the report is put as high as $58bn (£43bn).

Gulf states must rethink trillion-dollar defence in light of US-Iran war, says report

World news | The Guardian

By: Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor

30 October 2026 at 15:49

IISS study questions overreliance on American support and ‘overdependence on expensive, high-end systems’

Gulf states are going to have to reconfigure their trillion-dollar defences given the damage inflicted on their economies and the questionable continued value of US bases in the face of Iranian attack, according to a study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The report says that in the weeks before the 8 April ceasefire, 12 regional states, overwhelmingly in the Gulf, faced 4,670 Iranian one-way attack drones and more than 1,400 ballistic missiles. Nearly half were aimed at the United Arab Emirates. Although the vast majority were repelled, one estimate of the damage to energy infrastructure cited by the report is put as high as $58bn (£43bn).

U.S. Oil Industry Earned Over $130 Billion in Profit During Iran War

NYT > Top Stories

By: Rebecca F. Elliott and Keith Collins

30 October 2026 at 13:35

That was almost three times as much as what businesses producing and refining oil in the United States made in the same period in 2025.

Are Trump’s global actions, from Ukraine to Iran, going to hurt him in elections?

World news | The Guardian

By: Robert Tait in Jenkintown · Pennsylvania

30 October 2026 at 11:00

Voters who backed the US president in the last election are saying they can’t vote for him today: ‘This is an abomination’

Outside the Ukrainian educational and cultural center in a quiet Pennsylvania suburb of Jenkintown, on the outskirts of Philadelphia, a banner expressed unqualified gratitude: “Thank you USA for supporting Ukraine.”

Inside, however, the sentiment was altogether different. Irene Skulsky, a retired teacher in her late 70s, voiced indignation at Donald Trump’s sudden turn against her ancestral homeland, which she believed had come close to killing her son, Darko, and a desire to punish his fellow Republicans at next week’s midterm elections.

‘We’ve Seen This Movie’: Four Writers on What’s Next for Israel

NYT > Top Stories

By: Diana Buttu · Yossi Klein Halevi · Dahlia Scheindlin · Bret Stephens and Daniel J. Wakin

30 October 2026 at 02:21

A round table discussion decoding the election results.

JD Vance letter may offer last chance to avert fresh conflict between US and Iran

World news | The Guardian

By: Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor

29 October 2026 at 22:32

US vice-president writes to top Iranian security official in sign Washington has not abandoned diplomacy

Hopes of averting a major new conflagration between Iran and the US soon after Tuesday’s midterm elections could rest on Iran’s response to a personal letter from the US vice-president, JD Vance, offering to restart diplomacy.

The letter, written after predominantly Qatari mediation, was sent to the secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, Mohsen Rezaei on Sunday. It requires Tehran to agree to make commitments on its nuclear programme at the start of a process that would lead to the opening of the strait of Hormuz within seven days in return for US sanctions relief.

JD Vance letter may offer last chance to avert fresh conflict between US and Iran

The Guardian

By: Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor

29 October 2026 at 22:32

US vice-president writes to top Iranian security official in sign Washington has not abandoned diplomacy

Hopes of averting a major new conflagration between Iran and the US soon after Tuesday’s midterm elections could rest on Iran’s response to a personal letter from the US vice-president, JD Vance, offering to restart diplomacy.

The letter, written after predominantly Qatari mediation, was sent to the secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, Mohsen Rezaei on Sunday. It requires Tehran to agree to make commitments on its nuclear programme at the start of a process that would lead to the opening of the strait of Hormuz within seven days in return for US sanctions relief.

The beautiful, shocking work of artist Hoda Afshar: ‘I don’t take freedom of speech for granted’

The Guardian

By: Dee Jefferson

29 October 2026 at 17:00

Afshar’s experiences as a young woman in Iran have shaped her artistic career in Australia, focusing her eye on the humanity within inhumane systems

Get our weekend culture and lifestyle email

When Hoda Afshar was a teenager, coming of age in theocratic and authoritarian Iran in the 1990s, she and her friends were repeatedly arrested and physically punished by the “morality police”, for wearing their hijabs incorrectly in public and for attending underground parties. “They used to put a few of us in small solitary confinement cells together for a night or two, it was very common for my generation to experience that,” she says.

“We are part of the nasl-e sukhteh, or ‘burned generation’; the generation born after the 1979 revolution, who had to pay the price for many of the transformations and changes that happened.”

How Netanyahu Used Fear, Again, to Win More Votes Than Anyone Else

NYT > Top Stories

By: David M. Halbfinger

29 October 2026 at 13:29

Despite years of political baggage, the Israeli prime minister outperformed expectations, and his rivals, by playing on Jewish voters’ fears of Arab political power and potential security threats.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reacts to exit polls during a speech at his party headquarters in Jerusalem on Wednesday.

Shell profits double to $10.8bn as Iran war pushes up margin on oil

World news | The Guardian

By: Jillian Ambrose Energy correspondent

29 October 2026 at 11:00

Energy firm to return $5bn to shareholders as climate campaigners criticise high profits

Business live – latest updates

Shell has doubled its profits in the last quarter after the Middle East conflict drove up the price of oil and gas and created shortages in the global market.

Shell reported on Thursday morning that it made an adjusted profit of $10.8bn (£8.1bn) in the July-September quarter, up from $5.432bn in the third quarter of 2025. The results beat analyst expectations for a rise to $10.33bn.

Shell profits double to $10.8bn as Iran war pushes up margin on oil

The Guardian

By: Jillian Ambrose Energy correspondent

29 October 2026 at 11:00

Energy firm to return $5bn to shareholders as climate campaigners criticise high profits

Business live – latest updates

Shell has doubled its profits in the last quarter after the Middle East conflict drove up the price of oil and gas and created shortages in the global market.

Shell reported on Thursday morning that it made an adjusted profit of $10.8bn (£8.1bn) in the July-September quarter, up from $5.432bn in the third quarter of 2025. The results beat analyst expectations for a rise to $10.33bn.

Vance Proposes Restarting Peace Talks in Outreach to Iranian Official

NYT > Top Stories

By: Farnaz Fassihi and Tyler Pager

29 October 2026 at 05:15

In his letter, the vice president suggested an immediate resumption of comprehensive talks, including about Iran’s nuclear program.

Vice President JD Vance is said to have made the outreach in a letter sent last week via Qatari meditators and delivered Sunday to an Iranian official, Gen. Mohsen Rezaei.

American taxpayers' bill for Iran war grows to estimated $47.1 billion

PBS News Hour - The Latest

By: Ben Finley, Associated Press · Konstantin Toropin, Associated Press

28 October 2026 at 22:40

The Republican president has said new strikes on Iran are an option after the midterms and is sending more military resources to the Middle East, despite initially promising Americans a military campaign that would last only a matter of weeks.

The Guardian view on Israel’s elections: Netanyahu lost his mandate. If opponents unite, he’ll lose power too | Editorial

The Guardian

By: Editorial

28 October 2026 at 22:01

His chief rival should reject the prime minister’s anti-democratic vision and work with Palestinian Israeli parties

Benjamin Netanyahu has lost his mandate but not, so far, power. While final votes are still being tallied, most voters picked his opponents on Tuesday. His bloc’s share of seats remains the largest, but appears to have slumped by around 10, leaving it below the 61 needed for a majority in the Knesset. Palestinian Israeli parties surged, and are projected to almost double the 10 seats they held. The result is that Mr Netanyahu’s main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the military, now faces a choice: fall into line with Mr Netanyahu’s racist fearmongering or work with Arab-led parties.

The prime minister who oversaw shocking security failures ahead of the Hamas atrocities of 7 October 2023 still pitches himself as “Mr Security”. On trial for corruption, he has persistently attacked democratic institutions, especially the judiciary. He embraced and then indulged the ultra-right as they cheered on brutal settler violence in the occupied West Bank. (Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich lost ground in these polls, but perhaps due to their vision’s permeation of mainstream politics more than a revolt against it.) Mr Netanyahu’s war on Iran has destabilised the region. The tens of thousands of Palestinians killed by his government’s genocidal war on Gaza have barely featured in the election campaign, but its cost for Israeli hostages and international support for Israel have been noted by voters.

Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here.

Iranian film-maker Jafar Panahi given new prison sentence

World news | The Guardian

By: Deepa Parent

28 October 2026 at 19:56

Charges against him are unclear after return to Iran despite being sentenced last year for ‘propaganda activities’

An Iranian court has handed the award-winning film director Jafar Panahi a new prison sentence of five years and one month and ordered the seizure of all his assets.

The 66-year-old, who won the Palme d’Or at Cannes last year for It Was Just an Accident, was sentenced in absentia, his lawyer, Mostafa Nili, told the Iranian news outlet Emtedad. The court also imposed a two-year travel ban and barred him from using social media for two years, Nili said.

Iranian film-maker Jafar Panahi given new prison sentence

The Guardian

By: Deepa Parent

28 October 2026 at 19:56

Charges against him are unclear after return to Iran despite being sentenced last year for ‘propaganda activities’

An Iranian court has handed the award-winning film director Jafar Panahi a new prison sentence of five years and one month and ordered the seizure of all his assets.

The 66-year-old, who won the Palme d’Or at Cannes last year for It Was Just an Accident, was sentenced in absentia, his lawyer, Mostafa Nili, told the Iranian news outlet Emtedad. The court also imposed a two-year travel ban and barred him from using social media for two years, Nili said.

‘A pretty grim picture’: outlook for UK living standards slashed despite Healey’s budget

World news | The Guardian

By: Richard Partington Senior economics correspondent

28 October 2026 at 18:40

OBR cautions about Middle East war dragging down growth and triggering a fresh cost of living crisis

British households face a “pretty grim picture” for living standards as the war in the Middle East drags down growth and triggers a fresh cost of living crisis, the government’s independent forecaster has said.

In a report as John Healey announced his first budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) issued a sharp downgrade for growth in 2027, household disposable incomes and the public finances despite the measures taken by the chancellor.

For Israel’s Neighbors in Middle East, the Election Offers Little Hope of a Reset

NYT > Top Stories

By: Christina Goldbaum

28 October 2026 at 13:45

Few countries in the Middle East expect a turning point in relations with Israel. But the outcome of the vote has implications for the regional conflict with Iran.

Parts of Lebanon have been greatly damaged in fighting between Israel and Hezbollah since March, including the Dahiya neighborhood, a Hezbollah stronghold in the capital, Beirut.

Gulf states working on multipart peace deal to avert renewal of US-Iran war

World news | The Guardian

By: Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor

28 October 2026 at 08:00

Talks are aimed at reopening strait of Hormuz and lifting sanctions on Iran, and for Houthis to withdraw in Yemen

A multipronged peace deal to reopen the strait of Hormuz within four days of sanctions being lifted and for the Houthis to withdraw substantial forces inside Yemen are at the heart of Gulf states’ plans to avert what they regard as a disastrous renewal of war between Iran and the US.

The US is aware of the talks’ progress but is holding out for a concession that European powers suggest could involve Iran allowing UN weapons inspectors back into the country.

Gulf states working on multipart peace deal to avert renewal of US-Iran war

The Guardian

By: Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor

28 October 2026 at 08:00

Talks are aimed at reopening strait of Hormuz and lifting sanctions on Iran, and for Houthis to withdraw in Yemen

A multipronged peace deal to reopen the strait of Hormuz within four days of sanctions being lifted and for the Houthis to withdraw substantial forces inside Yemen are at the heart of Gulf states’ plans to avert what they regard as a disastrous renewal of war between Iran and the US.

The US is aware of the talks’ progress but is holding out for a concession that European powers suggest could involve Iran allowing UN weapons inspectors back into the country.

Reading view