Israel's election results are in. Here's what could happen next



The opposition can’t win unless they join forces with Arab parties. Benjamin Netanyahu knows this, and will use every ruse to stay in power
It’s less an election result than a philosophical puzzle: what happens when a win contains a loss, a loss contains a win and the two collide? That’s the question posed by the confused and confusing outcome of this week’s Israeli election, one that, despite its murky uncertainty, offers clear, sharp lessons – both for that country and for those locked in combat with nationalist populists across the globe.
Start with the result that has simultaneously handed Benjamin Netanyahu a devastating defeat and a strong chance of staying on as prime minister, extending a run that has seen him lead Israel, on and off, for more than 19 of the past 30 years. The defeat is clear enough. At a stroke, his parliamentary majority was wiped out. Before Tuesday, the parties that together comprised his ruling coalition controlled 68 of the Knesset’s 120 seats: that tally has now shrunk to just 53, far short of the 61 seats needed for power. That’s a loss in anybody’s language.
Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist
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© Photograph: Erik Marmor/Getty Images

© Photograph: Erik Marmor/Getty Images

© Photograph: Erik Marmor/Getty Images
Netanyahu’s claim of interference in election also dismissed by Israeli police and opposition parties
Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party and Benjamin Netanyahu’s main rival, has warned political opponents against exploiting allegations of foreign interference in Israel’s election to delay the swearing-in of the next Knesset.
In remarks posted on X, Eisenkot said:
Israel must safeguard the integrity of the elections against any attempt at interference, spin and manipulation, and examine every complaint thoroughly. On the other hand, political actors must not be allowed to exploit the situation and affect the swearing-in date of the 26th Knesset.”
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© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images
Netanyahu’s claim of interference in election also dismissed by Israeli police and opposition parties
Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party and Benjamin Netanyahu’s main rival, has warned political opponents against exploiting allegations of foreign interference in Israel’s election to delay the swearing-in of the next Knesset.
In remarks posted on X, Eisenkot said:
Israel must safeguard the integrity of the elections against any attempt at interference, spin and manipulation, and examine every complaint thoroughly. On the other hand, political actors must not be allowed to exploit the situation and affect the swearing-in date of the 26th Knesset.”
Continue reading...
© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images
His chief rival should reject the prime minister’s anti-democratic vision and work with Palestinian Israeli parties
Benjamin Netanyahu has lost his mandate but not, so far, power. While final votes are still being tallied, most voters picked his opponents on Tuesday. His bloc’s share of seats remains the largest, but appears to have slumped by around 10, leaving it below the 61 needed for a majority in the Knesset. Palestinian Israeli parties surged, and are projected to almost double the 10 seats they held. The result is that Mr Netanyahu’s main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the military, now faces a choice: fall into line with Mr Netanyahu’s racist fearmongering or work with Arab-led parties.
The prime minister who oversaw shocking security failures ahead of the Hamas atrocities of 7 October 2023 still pitches himself as “Mr Security”. On trial for corruption, he has persistently attacked democratic institutions, especially the judiciary. He embraced and then indulged the ultra-right as they cheered on brutal settler violence in the occupied West Bank. (Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich lost ground in these polls, but perhaps due to their vision’s permeation of mainstream politics more than a revolt against it.) Mr Netanyahu’s war on Iran has destabilised the region. The tens of thousands of Palestinians killed by his government’s genocidal war on Gaza have barely featured in the election campaign, but its cost for Israeli hostages and international support for Israel have been noted by voters.
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© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images
This live blog is now closed – you can read the latest elections news here
One apparent loser from Tuesday’s election was far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who was expected to better his party’s result of six seats from the 2022 elections.
But instead there was stunned silence at the watch party for Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) in central Israel as results from the exit polls flashed across the screen, with most channels suggesting the party would remain on just six seats.
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© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images
Opposition bloc and Netanyahu’s coalition predicted to fall short of 61 seats needed to form a government, while Palestinian parties set for big gains
One apparent loser from Tuesday’s election was far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who was expected to better his party’s result of six seats from the 2022 elections.
But instead there was stunned silence at the watch party for Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) in central Israel as results from the exit polls flashed across the screen, with most channels suggesting the party would remain on just six seats.
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© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images
This blog had now closed – our live Israel election results coverage continues here
Across Israel, voting is now under way. Here are some of the latest images being sent to us over the newswires:
Tens of thousands of Israelis living abroad have flown in for the elections, according to Aid Coalition, a US-based nonprofit focused on strengthening Israel’s democracy. Israeli law generally requires citizens to vote in person in the country, with narrow exceptions for diplomats and certain official emissaries abroad.
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© Photograph: Shir Torem/Reuters

© Photograph: Shir Torem/Reuters

© Photograph: Shir Torem/Reuters
