The opposition can’t win unless they join forces with Arab parties. Benjamin Netanyahu knows this, and will use every ruse to stay in power

It’s less an election result than a philosophical puzzle: what happens when a win contains a loss, a loss contains a win and the two collide? That’s the question posed by the confused and confusing outcome of this week’s Israeli election, one that, despite its murky uncertainty, offers clear, sharp lessons – both for that country and for those locked in combat with nationalist populists across the globe.

Start with the result that has simultaneously handed Benjamin Netanyahu a devastating defeat and a strong chance of staying on as prime minister, extending a run that has seen him lead Israel, on and off, for more than 19 of the past 30 years. The defeat is clear enough. At a stroke, his parliamentary majority was wiped out. Before Tuesday, the parties that together comprised his ruling coalition controlled 68 of the Knesset’s 120 seats: that tally has now shrunk to just 53, far short of the 61 seats needed for power. That’s a loss in anybody’s language.

Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist

IISS study questions overreliance on American support and ‘overdependence on expensive, high-end systems’

Gulf states are going to have to reconfigure their trillion-dollar defences given the damage inflicted on their economies and the questionable continued value of US bases in the face of Iranian attack, according to a study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The report says that in the weeks before the 8 April ceasefire, 12 regional states, overwhelmingly in the Gulf, faced 4,670 Iranian one-way attack drones and more than 1,400 ballistic missiles. Nearly half were aimed at the United Arab Emirates. Although the vast majority were repelled, one estimate of the damage to energy infrastructure cited by the report is put as high as $58bn (£43bn).

IISS study questions overreliance on American support and ‘overdependence on expensive, high-end systems’

Gulf states are going to have to reconfigure their trillion-dollar defences given the damage inflicted on their economies and the questionable continued value of US bases in the face of Iranian attack, according to a study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The report says that in the weeks before the 8 April ceasefire, 12 regional states, overwhelmingly in the Gulf, faced 4,670 Iranian one-way attack drones and more than 1,400 ballistic missiles. Nearly half were aimed at the United Arab Emirates. Although the vast majority were repelled, one estimate of the damage to energy infrastructure cited by the report is put as high as $58bn (£43bn).

Oxygen, food and water supplies running low and massacres taking place, says Nabil Shamsan

The Houthis are trying to send the city of Taiz back to the stone age, the city’s governor said in a briefing designed to urge the international community to do more to lift the month-long siege.

Nabil Shamsan said massacres were taking place in Yemen’s third city, that oxygen and water supplies were running out and that rubbish was piling up in the streets due to landfill sites being either full or inaccessible.

Oxygen, food and water supplies running low and massacres taking place, says Nabil Shamsan

The Houthis are trying to send the city of Taiz back to the stone age, the city’s governor said in a briefing designed to urge the international community to do more to lift the month-long siege.

Nabil Shamsan said massacres were taking place in Yemen’s third city, that oxygen and water supplies were running out and that rubbish was piling up in the streets due to landfill sites being either full or inaccessible.

In today’s newsletter: Benjamin Netanyahu has been left without a majority, now it is up to the coalition to find out whether the desire for change will prove to be a defining political moment

Good morning. It was described by many Israelis as the most consequential election in their country’s history. And, as the final votes were tallied, it has delivered a result that presents Israel with a significant dilemma.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition has lost its mandate while the opposition has a clear majority: but only if the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc, led by retired general Gadi Eisenkot, is prepared to make a governing pact with Palestinian Israeli parties, which have secured a historic result.

UK politics | John Healey has backed away from cutting the cost of welfare this parliament, amid dire warnings his first budget could lead to brutal spending cuts because of a £28bn shortfall in public finances.

Patrick Stewart | The acclaimed British stage and screen actor renowned for both Shakespeare and sci-fi, died at his home in Los Angeles after “a brief and poignant journey with Alzheimer’s disease and Lewy body dementia”, his longtime spokesperson said.

Environment | One of the most ambitious nature recovery projects ever undertaken in England can go ahead after campaigners announced they had raised £30m to buy an estate in Northumberland.

Europe | Spain began three days of mourning on Thursday for at least 69 people who died in a high-speed rail collision, as hospitals continued to treat dozens of injured passengers and train drivers went on strike to urge more investment in railway safety.

US news | The Trump administration has opened a criminal investigation in California over claims that thousands of noncitizens are registered to vote in the state, and has begun subpoenaing election officials.

Critics cite Lana Nusseibeh’s denial of accusations the UAE is fuelling Sudan war by supporting paramilitary RSF

Members of the Sudanese diaspora and international human rights monitors have denounced the candidature of an Emirati diplomat for the top job at the UN, citing her denial of accusations that the United Arab Emirates is fuelling the war in Sudan by supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

The UAE nominated Lana Nusseibeh last week to replace the UN secretary general, António Guterres, as he finishes his second five-year term ⁠this year, upending a race that had become gridlocked.

Critics cite Lana Nusseibeh’s denial of accusations the UAE is fuelling Sudan war by supporting paramilitary RSF

Members of the Sudanese diaspora and international human rights monitors have denounced the candidature of an Emirati diplomat for the top job at the UN, citing her denial of accusations that the United Arab Emirates is fuelling the war in Sudan by supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

The UAE nominated Lana Nusseibeh last week to replace the UN secretary general, António Guterres, as he finishes his second five-year term ⁠this year, upending a race that had become gridlocked.

US vice-president writes to top Iranian security official in sign Washington has not abandoned diplomacy

Hopes of averting a major new conflagration between Iran and the US soon after Tuesday’s midterm elections could rest on Iran’s response to a personal letter from the US vice-president, JD Vance, offering to restart diplomacy.

The letter, written after predominantly Qatari mediation, was sent to the secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, Mohsen Rezaei on Sunday. It requires Tehran to agree to make commitments on its nuclear programme at the start of a process that would lead to the opening of the strait of Hormuz within seven days in return for US sanctions relief.

US vice-president writes to top Iranian security official in sign Washington has not abandoned diplomacy

Hopes of averting a major new conflagration between Iran and the US soon after Tuesday’s midterm elections could rest on Iran’s response to a personal letter from the US vice-president, JD Vance, offering to restart diplomacy.

The letter, written after predominantly Qatari mediation, was sent to the secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, Mohsen Rezaei on Sunday. It requires Tehran to agree to make commitments on its nuclear programme at the start of a process that would lead to the opening of the strait of Hormuz within seven days in return for US sanctions relief.

Prime minister claims Arab Israeli parties used foreign backing to steal elections, in which his coalition lost its majority

Benjamin Netanyahu has been accused of using smear tactics to cling to power, after he claimed that Arab Israeli parties had used foreign backing to “steal” Tuesday’s election, in which the prime minister’s coalition lost its parliamentary majority.

Netanyahu and his allies called on the internal security service, Shin Bet, to investigate alleged vote buying and other irregularities in Palestinian communities in Israel, supposedly funded by foreign money.

Prime minister claims Arab Israeli parties used foreign backing to steal elections, in which his coalition lost its majority

Benjamin Netanyahu has been accused of using smear tactics to cling to power, after he claimed that Arab Israeli parties had used foreign backing to “steal” Tuesday’s election, in which the prime minister’s coalition lost its parliamentary majority.

Netanyahu and his allies called on the internal security service, Shin Bet, to investigate alleged vote buying and other irregularities in Palestinian communities in Israel, supposedly funded by foreign money.

Afshar’s experiences as a young woman in Iran have shaped her artistic career in Australia, focusing her eye on the humanity within inhumane systems

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When Hoda Afshar was a teenager, coming of age in theocratic and authoritarian Iran in the 1990s, she and her friends were repeatedly arrested and physically punished by the “morality police”, for wearing their hijabs incorrectly in public and for attending underground parties. “They used to put a few of us in small solitary confinement cells together for a night or two, it was very common for my generation to experience that,” she says.

“We are part of the nasl-e sukhteh, or ‘burned generation’; the generation born after the 1979 revolution, who had to pay the price for many of the transformations and changes that happened.”

Netanyahu’s claim of interference in election also dismissed by Israeli police and opposition parties

• Israel’s choice: Netanyahu remaining in power or a Palestinian-backed coalition

Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party and Benjamin Netanyahu’s main rival, has warned political opponents against exploiting allegations of foreign interference in Israel’s election to delay the swearing-in of the next Knesset.

In remarks posted on X, Eisenkot said:

Israel must safeguard the integrity of the elections against any attempt at interference, spin and manipulation, and examine every complaint thoroughly. On the other hand, political actors must not be allowed to exploit the situation and affect the swearing-in date of the 26th Knesset.”

Netanyahu’s claim of interference in election also dismissed by Israeli police and opposition parties

• Israel’s choice: Netanyahu remaining in power or a Palestinian-backed coalition

Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party and Benjamin Netanyahu’s main rival, has warned political opponents against exploiting allegations of foreign interference in Israel’s election to delay the swearing-in of the next Knesset.

In remarks posted on X, Eisenkot said:

Israel must safeguard the integrity of the elections against any attempt at interference, spin and manipulation, and examine every complaint thoroughly. On the other hand, political actors must not be allowed to exploit the situation and affect the swearing-in date of the 26th Knesset.”

Kushner threatens to sue, denying allegations that two slush funds were set up to influence his Middle East role

A new book containing incendiary claims about Jared Kushner’s financial dealings during Donald Trump’s first term has ignited a political and media firestorm.

The book by author Matthew Cole is called Princes and Thieves: Jared Kushner and Mohamed bin Zayed’s Secret Plot to Remake the Middle East and was released in the US this week. An excerpt was published by Vanity Fair last Thursday, and immediately drew a furious response from Kushner, who called its claims “completely insane”. The book contains numerous allegations about Kushner, whose father-in-law is Trump and who has served as one of his top diplomatic envoys in the Middle East – the most explosive of which are claims linking him to huge bank accounts allegedly funded by Gulf states.

Kushner threatens to sue, denying allegations that two slush funds were set up to influence his Middle East role

A new book containing incendiary claims about Jared Kushner’s financial dealings during Donald Trump’s first term has ignited a political and media firestorm.

The book by author Matthew Cole is called Princes and Thieves: Jared Kushner and Mohamed bin Zayed’s Secret Plot to Remake the Middle East and was released in the US this week. An excerpt was published by Vanity Fair last Thursday, and immediately drew a furious response from Kushner, who called its claims “completely insane”. The book contains numerous allegations about Kushner, whose father-in-law is Trump and who has served as one of his top diplomatic envoys in the Middle East – the most explosive of which are claims linking him to huge bank accounts allegedly funded by Gulf states.

Incumbent could turn defeat into another term in office as rival parties erect confected barrier to unseating him

• Israel election results – live updates

• Full report: Coalition talks loom in Israel

• Analysis: Rise of Palestinian parties will redraw political landscape

Hours before the final results from Israel’s elections were in, several things were clear. Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition had lost its mandate, and the opposition had a firm majority.

But most of Israel’s Jewish opposition ruled out governing with Palestinian-led parties, in the course of a racist election campaign in which Netanyahu painted Palestinian citizens as an enemy inside the state.

His chief rival should reject the prime minister’s anti-democratic vision and work with Palestinian Israeli parties

Benjamin Netanyahu has lost his mandate but not, so far, power. While final votes are still being tallied, most voters picked his opponents on Tuesday. His bloc’s share of seats remains the largest, but appears to have slumped by around 10, leaving it below the 61 needed for a majority in the Knesset. Palestinian Israeli parties surged, and are projected to almost double the 10 seats they held. The result is that Mr Netanyahu’s main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the military, now faces a choice: fall into line with Mr Netanyahu’s racist fearmongering or work with Arab-led parties.

The prime minister who oversaw shocking security failures ahead of the Hamas atrocities of 7 October 2023 still pitches himself as “Mr Security”. On trial for corruption, he has persistently attacked democratic institutions, especially the judiciary. He embraced and then indulged the ultra-right as they cheered on brutal settler violence in the occupied West Bank. (Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich lost ground in these polls, but perhaps due to their vision’s permeation of mainstream politics more than a revolt against it.) Mr Netanyahu’s war on Iran has destabilised the region. The tens of thousands of Palestinians killed by his government’s genocidal war on Gaza have barely featured in the election campaign, but its cost for Israeli hostages and international support for Israel have been noted by voters.

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Incumbent could turn defeat into another term in office as rival parties erect confected barrier to unseating him

• Israel election results – live updates

• Full report: Coalition talks loom in Israel

• Analysis: Rise of Palestinian parties will redraw political landscape

Hours before the final results from Israel’s elections were in, several things were clear. Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition had lost its mandate, and the opposition had a firm majority.

But most of Israel’s Jewish opposition ruled out governing with Palestinian-led parties, in the course of a racist election campaign in which Netanyahu painted Palestinian citizens as an enemy inside the state.