Israel's election results are in. Here's what could happen next




The opposition can’t win unless they join forces with Arab parties. Benjamin Netanyahu knows this, and will use every ruse to stay in power
It’s less an election result than a philosophical puzzle: what happens when a win contains a loss, a loss contains a win and the two collide? That’s the question posed by the confused and confusing outcome of this week’s Israeli election, one that, despite its murky uncertainty, offers clear, sharp lessons – both for that country and for those locked in combat with nationalist populists across the globe.
Start with the result that has simultaneously handed Benjamin Netanyahu a devastating defeat and a strong chance of staying on as prime minister, extending a run that has seen him lead Israel, on and off, for more than 19 of the past 30 years. The defeat is clear enough. At a stroke, his parliamentary majority was wiped out. Before Tuesday, the parties that together comprised his ruling coalition controlled 68 of the Knesset’s 120 seats: that tally has now shrunk to just 53, far short of the 61 seats needed for power. That’s a loss in anybody’s language.
Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist
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© Photograph: Erik Marmor/Getty Images

© Photograph: Erik Marmor/Getty Images

© Photograph: Erik Marmor/Getty Images
In today’s newsletter: Benjamin Netanyahu has been left without a majority, now it is up to the coalition to find out whether the desire for change will prove to be a defining political moment
Good morning. It was described by many Israelis as the most consequential election in their country’s history. And, as the final votes were tallied, it has delivered a result that presents Israel with a significant dilemma.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition has lost its mandate while the opposition has a clear majority: but only if the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc, led by retired general Gadi Eisenkot, is prepared to make a governing pact with Palestinian Israeli parties, which have secured a historic result.
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US news | The Trump administration has opened a criminal investigation in California over claims that thousands of noncitizens are registered to vote in the state, and has begun subpoenaing election officials.
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© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images


Prime minister claims Arab Israeli parties used foreign backing to steal elections, in which his coalition lost its majority
Benjamin Netanyahu has been accused of using smear tactics to cling to power, after he claimed that Arab Israeli parties had used foreign backing to “steal” Tuesday’s election, in which the prime minister’s coalition lost its parliamentary majority.
Netanyahu and his allies called on the internal security service, Shin Bet, to investigate alleged vote buying and other irregularities in Palestinian communities in Israel, supposedly funded by foreign money.
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© Photograph: Jalaa Marey/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Jalaa Marey/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Jalaa Marey/AFP/Getty Images
Prime minister claims Arab Israeli parties used foreign backing to steal elections, in which his coalition lost its majority
Benjamin Netanyahu has been accused of using smear tactics to cling to power, after he claimed that Arab Israeli parties had used foreign backing to “steal” Tuesday’s election, in which the prime minister’s coalition lost its parliamentary majority.
Netanyahu and his allies called on the internal security service, Shin Bet, to investigate alleged vote buying and other irregularities in Palestinian communities in Israel, supposedly funded by foreign money.
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© Photograph: Jalaa Marey/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Jalaa Marey/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Jalaa Marey/AFP/Getty Images
Netanyahu’s claim of interference in election also dismissed by Israeli police and opposition parties
Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party and Benjamin Netanyahu’s main rival, has warned political opponents against exploiting allegations of foreign interference in Israel’s election to delay the swearing-in of the next Knesset.
In remarks posted on X, Eisenkot said:
Israel must safeguard the integrity of the elections against any attempt at interference, spin and manipulation, and examine every complaint thoroughly. On the other hand, political actors must not be allowed to exploit the situation and affect the swearing-in date of the 26th Knesset.”
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© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images


Incumbent could turn defeat into another term in office as rival parties erect confected barrier to unseating him
Hours before the final results from Israel’s elections were in, several things were clear. Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition had lost its mandate, and the opposition had a firm majority.
But most of Israel’s Jewish opposition ruled out governing with Palestinian-led parties, in the course of a racist election campaign in which Netanyahu painted Palestinian citizens as an enemy inside the state.
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© Photograph: John Wessels/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: John Wessels/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: John Wessels/AFP/Getty Images

With nearly all votes counted, Netanyahu’s coalition government has lost its majority, but main opponents also fail to gain outright majority; marked gains by Palestinian parties
With almost all votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government has lost its majority, but his main opponents, an alliance of Jewish Israeli parties unofficially led by Gadi Eisenkot, have also failed to gain an outright majority.
Israeli media report that Netanyahu’s bloc is ahead, with projections he could take 53 seats under the current vote share, but this could change further. The projections put Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc on 48 seats and the Palestinian parties on 19 seats. Sixty-one seats are needed to form a majority to govern in the Knesset.
The remainder of votes to be counted come from absentee ballots, according to Israeli media. We can expect absentee ballots to be counted on Wednesday night, with final results by Thursday.
The Palestinian Israeli parties have received a historically strong vote. The Joint List, a new ticket of several Arab-majority parties, triumphed with at least 12 seats, while Ra’am, the other Islamic party, won seven.
The key question is whether the Eisenkot-led “Change” bloc (consisting of the rightwinger Naftali Bennett’s Together party, the centre-left Yair Golan’s Democrats and the rightwing Yisrael Beiteinu party) will partner with Palestinian Israeli parties or if they will resort to a new election, or even working with Netanyahu.
Netanyahu took the stage at a post-election rally in Jerusalem just after 3am, telling his supporters that official results will show that “Likud is the largest party in Israel”. He told his supporters that the country must “establish a strong, rightwing national government” – adding that a government that relied on the support of Palestinian parties must not be formed.
Eisenkot told cheering supporters in Tel Aviv that the “Israeli public has voted against Netanyahu’s service as Israel’s prime minister … a worthy leader would have accepted the people’s non-confidence and announced today his retirement from politics”. In his speech, he also warned Netanyahu not to “use Israel’s security” for political ends, playing on fears that the prime minister could use this period of uncertainty to launch a new attack on Iran.
The Palestinian Israeli vote, which represents about 20% of the population, had long been seen as a decisive factor for who will be able to form government, and the high turnout of this election was driven by the community experiencing increased racism and discrimination under Netanyahu’s government.
This is the most voted-for election in Israel’s political history, with many Israelis flying back into the country to cast their vote, and nearly 80% of IDF soldiers voting.
Donald Trump said his endorsement had helped Netanyahu perform better than polling estimates.
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© Photograph: Atef Safadi/EPA

© Photograph: Atef Safadi/EPA

© Photograph: Atef Safadi/EPA
Projections show votes for Palestinian parties surged in a tight contest that drew highest turnout in decades
Israel’s future hung in the balance on Wednesday as it became clear that Benjamin Netanyahu had lost his governing majority. His political fate now depends on whether opposition Jewish parties are prepared to forge a common front with Palestinian parties, whose support surged in Tuesday’s elections.
The leader of the Jewish opposition bloc, the retired general Gadi Eisenkot, appeared to rule out such a broad coalition in a premature declaration of victory overnight for what he called a “Zionist majority”.
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© Composite: AFP and Getty Images

© Composite: AFP and Getty Images

© Composite: AFP and Getty Images
This live blog is now closed – you can read the latest elections news here
One apparent loser from Tuesday’s election was far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who was expected to better his party’s result of six seats from the 2022 elections.
But instead there was stunned silence at the watch party for Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) in central Israel as results from the exit polls flashed across the screen, with most channels suggesting the party would remain on just six seats.
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© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images

Exit polls indicate opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot will have to work with Arab-Israeli leaders to have a hope of governing
The big gains made by Palestinian parties in Israel’s general election pose an urgent and fundamental challenge to the country’s mainstream opposition: either cooperate with Arab Israelis or hand Benjamin Netanyahu a roadmap to political survival.
In the wake of Tuesday’s exit polls, the leader of the opposition bloc, Gadi Eisenkot, declared them a victory for “Israel’s Zionist national majority” but the real outcome looks as if it will be far more complex than that.
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© Composite: Alamy

© Composite: Alamy

© Composite: Alamy
Early indications suggest it will be some time before the shape of new government and who will lead it is clear
Israel’s election appeared to have delivered no clear winner on Tuesday night after a historic turnout by voters for an election described by some as the most consequential in the country’s history, and marked by a record participation by Israeli Arab voters.
Exit polls published on Tuesday evening suggested that the opposition bloc of parties led by the former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Gadi Eisenkot, would win most seats in the Knesset by a slight margin, edging out Benjamin Netanyahu’s right and far-right coalition despite the prime minister’s Likud emerging as the largest party.
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© Photograph: Amir Levy/Getty Images

© Photograph: Amir Levy/Getty Images

© Photograph: Amir Levy/Getty Images