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Polymarket and Kalshi Face a Major Accuracy Test: The Midterms

Studies have shown that the betting sites can predict races correctly, but their ability to forecast U.S. midterm elections is an important proving ground.

© Hilary Swift for The New York Times

Prediction platforms like Polymarket are hoping the U.S. midterm elections will be their moment to shine.
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The Justice Department’s Unusual Election-Year Activity

Federal prosecutors have targeted President Trump’s political opponents and sued states over election administration just before the midterms. Devlin Barrett, a reporter for The New York Times, explains how this activity is compared with the Justice Department’s usual election-year behavior.
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Why Trump Is Losing Young Men

Young men swung to Donald Trump in 2024. Polling shows they are now moving away — but to what? Sabrina Tavernise, a reporter for The New York Times, went to Michigan to find out.

© Luke Piotrowski/The New York Times

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High Prices Haunt Trump and the GOP on Eve of the Midterms

A backlash over high prices helped Republicans capture a majority in 2024. Now, it may be the source of the party’s own undoing.

© Doug Mills/The New York Times

President Trump at a campaign event on Tuesday in Lubbock, Texas, where he talked about the political forces that had propelled his return to office, including high prices.
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Darline Graham Is ‘a Little Nervous.’ Can She Keep South Carolina’s Senate Seat Red?

Polls show the sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham in a virtual tie with her Democratic opponent, Dr. Annie Andrews. An upset was unthinkable just a few months ago.

© Win Mcnamee/Getty Images

Senator Darline Graham, is in a final, nail-biting week of campaigning against Dr. Annie Andrews, her Democratic opponent.
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How Michigan’s Midterm Senate Race Could Influence the 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary

The fate of Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive candidate in the race, will serve as a litmus test for the left’s potency heading into the next presidential contest.

© Nick Hagen for The New York Times

The Democratic Party’s activist class believes a victory by Dr. Abdul El-Sayed next week would establish a proof point that left-wing populism is a winning message.
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Trump Cancels Rallies in Kansas and Iowa This Weekend

President Trump has been holding hours-long rallies for G.O.P. candidates nearly every day for weeks.

© Doug Mills/The New York Times

President Trump at Joint Base Andrews, Md., after a campaign rally in South Carolina.
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Republicans Ramp Up Investigation Into Democratic Plan to Pack Alaska’s Ballot

The Justice Department issued subpoenas, a House oversight committee sought interviews and the state opened its own inquiry into a Democratic plan to recruit a spoiler into a Senate race.

© Kerry Tasker/Reuters

Republican anger grew on Thursday over a Democratic effort to stack Alaska’s Senate ballot with candidates to siphon votes from the G.O.P. incumbent.
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Polymarket Is Investigating Suspicious Bets on Israeli Election

The company said it was looking into hundreds of new accounts that had placed wagers in two markets related to the election on Tuesday.

© Chris McGrath/Getty Images

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking at a Likud event in Jerusalem on Wednesday.
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Trump Administration Pressures California With Expanded Voter Fraud Investigation

The department has issued grand jury subpoenas to local election officials as part of a widening effort to prove unsubstantiated claims about large numbers of illegal voters in the state.

© Philip Cheung for The New York Times

Voters casting their ballots in Los Angeles in June. At least two employees of Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder’s office received grand jury subpoenas last week.
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Judge Orders Trump Officials to Outline Election Demands Sent to States

A federal judge gave the government until noon on Friday to share which states had received letters trying to enlist them in an effort to find evidence of voter fraud.

© Madison Swart for The New York Times

Early voting in New York City last week.
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Polymarket and Kalshi Turn Midterm Elections Into a Multimillion Dollar Market

Betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have transformed America’s democracy into a new kind of casino.

© Hilary Swift for The New York Times

David Bensoussan has placed wagers worth over $1.5 million in over a dozen midterm races.
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How Hochul Became a Surprise Champion of the Subway

Gov. Kathy Hochul isn’t from New York City, but she could be its biggest mass transit defender in a generation. She has embraced that distinction in her re-election campaign.

© Jonah Markowitz for The New York Times

Gov. Kathy Hochul is leaning on her record of funding improvements to New York’s public transit system, including by approving a congestion pricing toll that was the first of its kind in the nation.
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