Thinktank says chancellor has given himself a mountain to climb after ducking big decisions in low-key speech

John Healey has paved the way for a “brutal” spending review next year after his budget failed to cover a £28bn shortfall in the public finances needed to avoid a return to austerity, according to Britain’s leading tax and spending experts.

A day after his address to the Commons, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the chancellor had left himself a mountain to climb by ducking several big decisions in his debut tax and spending statement.

Guardian columnist, senior economics commentator and host of the new Radical Thinking podcast Aditya Chakrabortty is answering your questions on the big ideas around economics, society and democracy, and his new podcast

Send your questions to conversations@theguardian.com or join the discussion on Friday from 8am

thegreatfatsby asks: Do you think the fact that Gabriel Zucman, who is a recognised authority on wealth tax is given more respect, time and attention by the mainstream media than Gary Stevenson, who has worked eloquently and tirelessly to spread the debate about the terrible consequences of inequality and whose ideas and analysis are almost identical is because of our cultural fixation on class prejudice?

Aditya says: I’ve followed Gabriel Zucman (and Emmanuel Saez and Thomas Piketty) for a long time, and find his work rigorous and thought provoking. I don’t always agree, but I appreciate their acceptance that taxes on wealth are part of the fight against ever-increasing inequality.

I think Gary Stevenson is eloquent and compelling and is fighting a good fight. His book tells a story very well. But I don’t accept the insistence on a ‘wealth tax’ (as opposed to taxes on wealth) as being the only way we fight everything from inequality to the far right. We have to look at workers’ rights, housing, public ownership, greater democracy in economics and politics as well.

In the age of algorithm, simple, strong messages cut through. But the truth is often more complex.

Aditya says: What a nice question, Marija. I try to read a lot and write a diary. Unfortunately, I have the handwriting of a GP so I can’t read old entries. The other thing is I try to shirk my mobile phone.

Guardian columnist, senior economics commentator and host of the new Radical Thinking podcast Aditya Chakrabortty answered your questions on the big ideas around economics, society and democracy, and his new podcast

thegreatfatsby asks: Do you think the fact that Gabriel Zucman, who is a recognised authority on wealth tax is given more respect, time and attention by the mainstream media than Gary Stevenson, who has worked eloquently and tirelessly to spread the debate about the terrible consequences of inequality and whose ideas and analysis are almost identical is because of our cultural fixation on class prejudice?

Aditya says: I’ve followed Gabriel Zucman (and Emmanuel Saez and Thomas Piketty) for a long time, and find his work rigorous and thought provoking. I don’t always agree, but I appreciate their acceptance that taxes on wealth are part of the fight against ever-increasing inequality.

I think Gary Stevenson is eloquent and compelling and is fighting a good fight. His book tells a story very well. But I don’t accept the insistence on a ‘wealth tax’ (as opposed to taxes on wealth) as being the only way we fight everything from inequality to the far right. We have to look at workers’ rights, housing, public ownership, greater democracy in economics and politics as well.

In the age of algorithm, simple, strong messages cut through. But the truth is often more complex.

Aditya says: What a nice question, Marija. I try to read a lot and write a diary. Unfortunately, I have the handwriting of a GP so I can’t read old entries. The other thing is I try to shirk my mobile phone.

Commerce department data contrasts with sharp deterioration in consumer sentiment as midterms loom

The US economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter while inflation accelerated in September, according to new commerce department data released on Thursday, less than a week before the midterm elections that will determine control of Congress.

Gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annualized rate last quarter, the commerce department’s ⁠bureau of economic analysis said in its advance estimate of the third-quarter GDP on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP advancing at a 3.2% pace.

Thinktank says chancellor has given himself a mountain to climb after ducking big decisions in low-key speech

John Healey has paved the way for a “brutal” spending review next year after his budget failed to cover a £28bn shortfall in the public finances needed to avoid a return to austerity, according to Britain’s leading tax and spending experts.

A day after his address to the Commons, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the chancellor had left himself a mountain to climb by ducking several big decisions in his debut tax and spending statement.

Growth is in sharp contrast to ​households’ assessment, reflected in ‌Trump’s record-low approval ratings

The US economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter as resilient consumer spending and AI-driven ⁠business investment more than ⁠offset the impact ​of higher oil prices stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.

Gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annualized rate last quarter, the commerce department’s ⁠bureau of economic analysis said in its advance estimate of the third quarter GDP on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP advancing at a 3.2% pace.

Prime minister wrote to ministers saying he did not want them to ‘advocate for specific options or opine on the likely outcome of the process’

Selling nicotine-free vapes to children under the age of 18 has become illegal from today, the government has said.

Children were already banned from buying vapes containing nicotine. But, under the Tobacco and Vapes Act, shops across the UK will now be banned from selling nicotine-free vapes, and nicotine pouches, to children.

Vaping can be a way to help established adult smokers who are already addicted to nicotine from tobacco to swap to a less dangerous product. Vaping is considered safer than smoking, but that is a low bar. Vapes should therefore never be used by children or non-smokers.

Some children have already come to harm from bad reactions to vapes. The long-term health harms of vaping in today’s children will only become clear over time. They are however unlikely to be good; inhaling multiple, often heated, chemicals into the lungs may well do irreversible harm.

Possible candidate to run World Economic Forum departs ECB nine months early, saying she wants to speak her mind about world affairs

Christine Lagarde, the eurozone’s top central banker, has said she is stepping down nine months early to speak her mind about world affairs and confront the “misrepresentation of the truth”.

Ending months of speculation about her future at the European Central Bank, Lagarde said she would quit her role as president in March rather than October next year because the rules of neutrality that governed her job prevented her from influencing debate about financial and economics affairs.

Possible candidate to run World Economic Forum departs ECB nine months early, saying she wants to speak her mind about world affairs

Christine Lagarde, the eurozone’s top central banker, has said she is stepping down nine months early to speak her mind about world affairs and confront the “misrepresentation of the truth”.

Ending months of speculation about her future at the European Central Bank, Lagarde said she would quit her role as president in March rather than October next year because the rules of neutrality that governed her job prevented her from influencing debate about financial and economics affairs.

Prime minister wrote to ministers saying he did not want them to ‘advocate for specific options or opine on the likely outcome of the process’

Selling nicotine-free vapes to children under the age of 18 has become illegal from today, the government has said.

Children were already banned from buying vapes containing nicotine. But, under the Tobacco and Vapes Act, shops across the UK will now be banned from selling nicotine-free vapes, and nicotine pouches, to children.

Vaping can be a way to help established adult smokers who are already addicted to nicotine from tobacco to swap to a less dangerous product. Vaping is considered safer than smoking, but that is a low bar. Vapes should therefore never be used by children or non-smokers.

Some children have already come to harm from bad reactions to vapes. The long-term health harms of vaping in today’s children will only become clear over time. They are however unlikely to be good; inhaling multiple, often heated, chemicals into the lungs may well do irreversible harm.

The Guardian’s money and economics editors Hilary Osborne and Heather Stewart answered your questions on energy prices, tax thresholds and the global events pressuring the economy.

FelonMarmer asks: What is going to stop landlords just transferring their tax increase onto tenants, while complaining about how hard done by they are?

Heather says: Unfortunately, there’s nothing to stop landlords passing their higher tax bills onto their tenants, aside from what the local rental market will bear. Indeed, the Office for Budget Responsibility did suggest one result of this and other recent policies (the 2p rise this year followed another 2p last year) could be “a steady rise in rents,” as some landlords whack up rents and others leave the market altogether. I think John Healey’s answer would probably be a fairness one - that income made through renting out property should be taxed more heavily than that earned through work.

Heather says: That’s a really good question: Labour strategists are adamant that they wouldn’t. I can’t help thinking that voters were so convinced the public services were in a dire state, they could have accepted the argument that taxes needed to rise. Certainly, the Tories didn’t seem to get much electoral credit for Jeremy Hunt’s desperate cuts to national insurance contributions in his last couple of budgets. But we’ll never know.

Another question is whether Labour should have bust the manifesto promises - either when they first got in, on the basis the public finances were worse than they thought; or at some point in the last year, given the impact of the Iran war (which has added £14bn to the government’s interest costs this year alone).

Few surprises as chancellor uses low-key speech blaming ‘global economic storms’ for stoking energy prices and cost of living crisis

• Budget 2026: key points at a glance

• Briefing: key questions answered by Heather Stewart and Pippa Crerar

• Editorial: Budget’s bold ambitions and welcome first steps

John Healey raised taxes on banks and landlords to fund a £100 winter handout for 20 million families as official forecasts made clear there is no end in sight for the cost of living crisis.

In his first budget, the chancellor blamed “global economic storms” for the grim outlook, as the war in Iran drives up oil and gas prices.

Few surprises as chancellor uses low-key speech blaming ‘global economic storms’ for stoking energy prices and cost of living crisis

• Budget 2026: key points at a glance

• Briefing: key questions answered by Heather Stewart and Pippa Crerar

• Editorial: Budget’s bold ambitions and welcome first steps

John Healey raised taxes on banks and landlords to fund a £100 winter handout for 20 million families as official forecasts made clear there is no end in sight for the cost of living crisis.

In his first budget, the chancellor blamed “global economic storms” for the grim outlook, as the war in Iran drives up oil and gas prices.

How the Burnham government’s first attempt to ease cost of living pressure pans out for key stakeholders
Budget 2026: key points at a glance

Every budget has its winners and losers, and John Healey’s first as chancellor was no exception. While some gained from tax breaks and rule tweaks, others will either pay more, or had their hopes of reforms dashed. Here are some of those with reason to cheer, or sigh:

Payments to 20m homes part of package to cut energy bills and ease cost of living crisis, paid for by bank windfall tax

• ‘A pretty grim picture’: outlook for UK living standards slashed despite Healey’s budget

• Budget 2026: key points at a glance

John Healey promised to steer Britain through “global economic storms” as he announced an energy giveaway of £100 to 80% of households in England, funded by a smaller than expected windfall tax on banks.

In his first budget, the chancellor said 20 million households in council tax bands A to D would receive a £100 payment – a measure he said would cost £2.6bn.

The luxury MV Odyssey ship slated for a years-long voyage around the world suspends operations amid high fuel prices

A luxury cruise ship that had embarked on a years-long voyage around the world was forced to suspend its operations and leave passengers stranded in Cambodia because of high fuel prices.

The ship, known as the MV Odyssey, had been carrying 203 passengers, mostly Americans, along with 156 crew members, Cambodian officials told the Associated Press. The ship has a 650-passenger capacity.

The luxury MV Odyssey ship slated for a years-long voyage around the world suspends operations amid high fuel prices

A luxury cruise ship that had embarked on a years-long voyage around the world was forced to suspend its operations and leave passengers stranded in Cambodia because of high fuel prices.

The ship, known as the MV Odyssey, had been carrying 203 passengers, mostly Americans, along with 156 crew members, Cambodian officials told the Associated Press. The ship has a 650-passenger capacity.

OBR cautions about Middle East war dragging down growth and triggering a fresh cost of living crisis

• Healey offers £100 payment to households to help navigate ‘global economic storms’

• Budget 2026: key points at a glance

• Budget 2026 live – latest updates

British households face a “pretty grim picture” for living standards as the war in the Middle East drags down growth and triggers a fresh cost of living crisis, the government’s independent forecaster has said.

In a report as John Healey announced his first budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) issued a sharp downgrade for growth in 2027, household disposable incomes and the public finances despite the measures taken by the chancellor.

Payments to 20m homes part of package to cut energy bills and ease cost of living crisis, paid for by bank windfall tax

• ‘A pretty grim picture’: outlook for UK living standards slashed despite Healey’s budget

• Budget 2026: key points at a glance

• Budget 2026 live – latest updates

John Healey promised to steer Britain through “global economic storms” as he announced an energy giveaway of £100 to 80% of households in England, funded by a smaller than expected windfall tax on banks.

In his first budget, the chancellor said 20 million households in council tax bands A to D would receive a £100 payment – a measure he said would cost £2.6bn.

John Healey is announcing his financial update – here are the main points, with political analysis

• Budget 2026 live – latest updates

John Healey starts by saying that his budget is “delivered at a time when global uncertainties and pressures are swirling worldwide and hitting people here at home”.

Healey says he will meet the fiscal rule that day to day spending must be covered by tax receipts and the investment rule that government debt, defined as public sector net financial liabilities, must be falling as a percentage of GDP in the third year of the forecast.

The government will have £15bn of headroom in 2029-30 and £20bn in 2030-31, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government’s forecaster.

Government borrowing will be 4.2% of GDP this year, 3.4% next year, then 2.9% and 2.1% 1.8% by 2030-31, the OBR says.

Predictions of slowing growth were wrong, Healey says. The OBR says GDP will grow by 1.2% this year, 1% next year, 1.6% in 2028, 1.8% in 2029, 1.7% in 2030, 1.6% in 2031. In March the OBR had predicted GDP growth of 1.1% in 2026, rising to 1.6% in 2027 and 2028, and dropping to 1.5% in 2029 and 2030.

Government debt is forecast to be 83.2% of GDP this year, 83.8% next year, and then falling to 83.1%, 82.3% and 81.7% in the following years.