Expectations are cresting for Democrats, and some kind of wave seems likely, but so much will depend on a few close Senate races.

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South Carolina seems like a serious race; Minnesota may not be; and Florida still appears out of reach for Democrats.

© Jillian Vordick/The New York Times

Members of the team behind the Times/Siena Poll on what the data show, how they’ve improved their methodology and what it means to be “right.”

A timely demographic story we’ve never been able to tell before.

© The New York Times