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Jewish communities in Israel and around the world are currently marking the third anniversary of the October 7 attacks that killed 1,200 people and triggered the war in Gaza.

Memorials for the victims of the attacks have been held at homes, on highways, and at the site of the Nova music festival. In Tel Aviv, a massive art installation at the Trumpeldor beach commemorated both the victims and the 251 hostages taken by Hamas three years ago.

Of those hostages, 166 have since returned alive, and the remains of the last deceased captive were released to Israel in January. But there’s no undoing the national trauma of the October 7 attacks — the deadliest massacre of Jewish people since the Holocaust — or the brutal retaliatory campaign that Israel launched afterward.

Those events profoundly changed Israel, Gaza, the broader Middle East, and the United States, and they continue to shape global and domestic politics. So today, we’re taking a look at the very long shadow of the October 7 attacks and Israel’s response to them.

Go a little deeper

Writing about the first anniversary of October 7 two years ago, Vox’s Zack Beauchamp warned that the “horrors” first triggered by the attacks would continue to unfold in tragic and unforeseeable ways. “Events that might seem contained to the Middle East have come to hurt people around the world,” he wrote, “in ways that we may not yet fully understand or even be capable of predicting.”

That hurt has undeniably been most acute in the Gaza Strip, where three years of war have reduced entire cities to rubble. Israel’s military campaign has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians — most of them civilians — since October 2023. Most of Gaza’s 2 million residents have also been displaced from their homes, crowded into makeshift shelters and refugee camps riddled with hunger and disease.

But the consequences of October 7 extended beyond Gaza. Settler violence against Palestinians intensified in the occupied West Bank. And the ensuing conflicts also weakened Iran and changed the balance of power across the Middle East.

That’s because Iran had long relied on its allies, like Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, to project power and deter attacks by its longtime rival, Israel. After October 7, however, Israel significantly weakened both groups, leaving Iran vulnerable and setting the stage for the direct strikes on Iran that Israel and the US began last winter. 

Both the war in Iran and the continued occupation of Gaza have badly hurt Israel’s international image. Across 36 countries surveyed by Pew last spring, a median of 67 percent of adults viewed Israel negatively. That disapproval has translated into diplomatic shifts, as well: 155 countries — including longtime allies of Israel, such as the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia — now officially recognize Palestinian statehood, up from 136 before the war. That doesn’t change much on the ground, but it represents a real rebuke to Israel. 

In the US, meanwhile, Israel has become a huge flashpoint in domestic politics. While more than half of Americans had a favorable view of the country before October 7, sentiment deteriorated sharply in 2025 and 2026, particularly on the left.

The issue could help determine some key midterm races, like the Michigan Senate election, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has called for ending US military aid to Israel. That’s a policy nearly half of House Democrats and many potential presidential candidates have also endorsed. 

Cutting off US aid to Israel isn’t likely to change the country’s stance toward Palestinians, however. (Israel is a wealthy country in its own right, and American aid represents just a small piece of its budget.) Instead, changing Israeli policy on Gaza and the West Bank would likely require far more aggressive pressure — pressure that, even in the current political environment, the US is unlikely to apply.

A single day may have kicked off a cascade of hurt and horrors. But putting an end to them will take far more time.

One link for later

➨ Cultivate hope. It can feel difficult (not to mention: naive, pointless, and exhausting) to maintain optimism in the face of current events. So Jamil Zaki, a psychology professor and the director of the Stanford Social Neuroscience Lab, suggests another tact: Do away with blind optimism and lean into hope — that belief that the future could turn out well, but requires real care and attention.

Before you go…

• Did you know…that sea turtles regularly cry (okay: “shed tears”) to rid their bodies of excess salt? Scientists are studying sea turtle tears to learn more about animal navigation. 
• Today’s trivia: What’s the word for a baby eagle? (You can find this and other brain puzzles in Vox’s daily crossword. Look for the answer in tomorrow’s edition.)
• Yesterday’s trivia: Yesterday we asked you for the final letter of the Greek alphabet. That would be omega, as in the Bible verse, Swiss watch brand, and nutritional supplement. 

Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, is a Christian Zionist who believes that Israel is biblically entitled to all of the Holy Land. He’s pretty much the last person you’d expect to condemn Israeli conduct in the West Bank, where settlers have spent decades using a combination of construction, coercion, and outright violence to push Palestinians off their own land.

Yet earlier this month, Huckabee went out of his way to denounce the behavior of some settlers — describing them as “band of terrorists” who had committed “horrible activities of criminal nature.”

Huckabee’s surprising outrage stems, in part, from their recent choice of victims. Last month, settler extremists besieged three Palestinian homes in the village of Qusra, including one belonging to American citizen Lou Ridi. About two weeks later, masked settlers beat up a NBC News crew while they attempted to interview Aida Ahmed Abdullah, a Palestinian who had herself had been forced from her home by settler aggression.

But Huckabee’s outrage reflects something deeper. Settler terrorism, once relatively uncommon, has exploded in severity in recent years — with wink-nudge support from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.

The violence is so egregious, and so indefensible, that retired Israeli generals have compared the settlers to Nazis and demanded action to stop them. In mid-September, the INSS — Israel’s top national security think tank — issued a strategic alert warning that “Jewish terrorism” had become a national crisis and even an existential threat to Israel’s future.

“As history teaches us, democracies that fail to restrain radical forces within them do not survive,” the alert argues.

In Washington, settler terrorism against Palestinians has flipped the Israel debate on its head. Congressional Democrats, who have long been divided over the Gaza war, have come together to support legislation that would impose sanctions on Israeli politicians and corporations implicated in the violence. The Trump administration, the most pro-settlement White House in American history, has very conspicuously stood aside as Canada and European nations implemented sanctions of their own.

For now, the settlers are mostly getting away with it — because the government wants them to.

For now, the settlers are mostly getting away with it — because the government wants them to. While basically all Israeli governments have allowed settlements to grow, the current Netanyahu government includes coalition partners unusually aligned with their most radical goals: the ethnic cleansing of the West Bank. So long as they see settler terrorism as a useful tactic toward that end, and have the ability to stymie preventive measures and block accountability, the attacks will continue.

But if Netanyahu loses Israel’s election in October, and Democrats retake the White House in 2028, things might change dramatically. The political stars could align for a serious effort to change what Israel is doing in the West Bank — not just attempting to merely slow settler violence, but also challenge the broader apparatus of occupation that makes it possible.

In “conversations that I’ve had with congressional Democrats and their staff, this [settler violence] is the No. 1 issue that comes up, the thing they’re angriest about,” said Michael Koplow, the chief policy officer at the center-left Israel Policy Forum. “If you have a Democrat in the White House, this is something the Israelis are going to have to deal with — whether they want to or not.”

The rise of settler terrorism

Under international law, Israeli settlement in the West Bank is illegal: Countries are not permitted to move their own civilians into territory they occupied after a war. However, under successive Israeli governments — including the more peace-minded ones — the settlements have continued to grow. Many of those closest to the border function as suburbs of major Israeli cities; some further east, like Ariel, look like small cities in their own right. During the era when a negotiated solution looked possible in the near term, their growth was often seen as part of a bid to dictate the eventual borders of a Palestinian state — or blow up negotiations entirely — with “facts on the ground” that would be hard to undo.

While individual settlers live there for all sorts of reasons — for many, the housing costs are cheaper — the political movement overall exists to seize land from Palestinians and slam the door on the possibility of a two-state solution to the conflict. 

On a macro level, the physical placement of the settlements cut Palestinian communities off from each other, making it hard — basically impossible — to construct a contiguous Palestinian state so long as they remain standing. On a micro level, settlements are often placed in ways designed to push Palestinians off their land — by, for example, putting Palestinian-owned land into no-go zones enforced by the Israeli military. And politically, the population growth in settlements creates a powerful constituency in Israeli politics whose entire way of life depends on preventing a peace agreement that would require settlement evacuation.

Settler violence is the literal bleeding edge of this overall strategy. Violent settlers live in ramshackle communities, tiny villages on hilltops or herding outposts encroaching on Palestinian farmland, that are often illegal even under domestic Israeli law. The people living there are the hardest of the hardcore settlers: fanatically devoted to the idea that the land is theirs by divine right, and that they have every right to use force to push their Palestinians neighbors out.

Their tactics include everything from killing Palestinian livestock to cutting off their water supply to burning down their homes to outright beating and killing them. The violence is autonomous, in that individual settlers decide on what to do, but enabled by the overall strategic plan of the settlement movement.

“There’s no hierarchy deciding that this [specific] house will be attacked. The decision is that this area is an area of all our interest, so we need to subsidize herding farms there. And those bring violence, which lead to displacement” of the local Palestinians, said Yehuda Shaul, co-director of the Israeli think tank Ofek and a leading observer of the settlement movement.

Settler terrorism is not new, but it used to be comparatively rare. In 2012, Natan Sachs — a leading expert on Israeli politics at the Middle East Institute think tank — wrote an essay warning that the growth of the settlements, and the radicalization of some settlers, were creating a dangerous new violent movement of settlers.  

“Back then, it was a fringe thing among settlers,” Sachs tells me. “It has become much more mainstream.”

Israel’s current government, which took power in late 2022 and is by far the most radical in Israeli history, bears enormous responsibility.

“This particular government is enabling settler violence beyond anything we’ve ever seen,” said Yousef Munayyer, the director of the Israel/Palestine program at the Arab Center think tank in DC.

Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich, a settler living in a reportedly illegal home and a longtime advocate of ethnically cleansing West Bank Palestinians, is currently in charge of civilian administration in the West Bank. In effect, this allows him to use state resources to orchestrate a historic expansion of settlements across the West Bank — including the illegal outposts that many violent settlers call home. 

“This is his life’s work,” said Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst on Israel-Palestine at the International Crisis Group. “He’s completely dedicated to this and he knows exactly what he’s doing.”

Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir, also a settler, is if anything more extreme: For years, he hung a portrait of Baruch Goldstein, a terrorist who massacred 29 Palestinians at a holy site in Hebron, in his living room. Ben Gvir has, among other things, instructed the police forces under his authority not to arrest violent settlers and given thousands of weapons to settlers themselves.

In theory, the Israeli military and intelligence establishment should be a check on the extremists. Settler violence is not only illegal, but also a national security threat. Settler violence prompts Palestinian retaliation and, at times, even targets Israeli soldiers and police themselves. It can lead to international incidents, like those seen recently, that undermine Israel’s support with key allies abroad. The Israeli military is the ultimate authority in the West Bank; it could act on these concerns if it so chose.

In practice, however, they’re of little help. Israeli government data shows that, between 2005 and 2025, 94 percent of all investigations into settler violence fail to yield an indictment. The military will facilitate illegal settlements’ connection to the electrical grid. And its ranks are increasingly made up of “national religious” Jewish Israelis, a demographic that’s theologically on board with the settlement enterprise, versus more secular Israelis who primarily see the conflict through a security lens.

And after October 7, the Army dealt with a manpower crisis by significantly increasing the number of “regional defense units” — essentially bands of armed settlers that can be tasked with local security in the West Bank in lieu of regular soldiers. It emboldens violence in exactly the way you’d think.

So while the recent spike in settler terrorism can fairly be blamed on the Netanyahu government, the phenomenon itself is an outgrowth of the structural settlement growth Israel has condoned or actively pursued for decades.

“It’s all one set of policies,” said Ilan Goldenberg, senior vice president and chief policy officer at J Street, an American lobby that favors a two-state solution to the conflict.

How the violence could lead to a deeper break between America and Israel

Other than Israel’s government itself, the most important player in all this is the American government. As Israel’s chief diplomatic ally and military supplier, it has immense leverage that could be used to affect the West Bank (or anywhere else). Thus, changing American politics on Israel could quite directly produce a transformation on the ground.

Since October 7, Gaza has dominated American discourse over Israel — and it is arguably the most divisive issue in both the Democratic and Republican parties. Many Democrats (and a majority of rank-and-file voters) call Israel’s actions in Gaza genocide, a label others in the party strongly reject. While the Trump administration and most elected Republicans have stood behind Netanyahu, a faction — including Vice President JD Vance, Tucker Carlson, and a significant chunk of younger GOP voters — have grown increasingly critical of American military support for Israel’s actions.

But settler violence, specifically, might as well be another political universe. 

On the Democratic side, there is basically unanimous condemnation of what’s going on in the West Bank. Even Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI), a leading pro-Israel advocacy group, believes that Israel is erring here.

“DMFI unequivocally condemns attacks by violent Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank. Israel’s government must move beyond just words and take definitive action to protect civilians, and ensure that those responsible are held accountable,” Brian Romick, DMFI’s president, told me.

Last year, US Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) — an influential progressive pro-Israel voice in Congress, where he’s long represented some of the nation’s largest Jewish communities — co-authored the West Bank Violence Protection Act, legislation that would sanction violent settlers and their enablers. The law would effectively codify an executive order issued by President Joe Biden in 2024, but scrapped by President Donald Trump upon taking office. 

The key question going forward is what this political dynamic means for policy.

More than 170 House Democrats and 45 senators have cosponsored it, the vast majority of Democrats in both chambers. Goldenberg, whose J Street outfit has been a leading voice supporting the law, says rallying support for it has been easy.

By contrast, no Republicans have cosponsored the bill. When you combine that with Trump reversing the Biden order, and his broader enabling of settlement expansion, you might think that the administration would be willing to take Israel’s side in the argument over settler violence.

Yet that’s not been the case — and it’s not just Huckabee freelancing. Earlier this month, when Canada, the UK, and France imposed significant sanctions targeting settlements, Secretary of State Marco Rubio pointedly refused to condemn these allied policies, saying that neither he nor Trump had any comment on their decisions.

“Obviously, we’re not going to do what the UK did. [But] we share the goal of stability: we don’t to see an uptick in violence or conflict or tensions in the West Bank,” he told reporters on September 8.

Settler terrorism, then, has a remarkable effect on both parties: Democrats in Congress go from fractious on Israel to united, and the Trump administration goes from Israel’s chief defender to a tacit enabler of allied pressure campaigns against it. Why?

I put this question to all the experts I spoke with, and everyone offered a basically similar explanation: that settler violence is morally and politically straightforward. Even the most hardline pro-Israel advocate, ones who rationalize mass civilian killing in Gaza as necessary to destroy Hamas and restore Israel’s security, blanch at videos of armed settlers beating up on defenseless Palestinians, which cannot be justified on the same grounds. Virtually nobody in American politics wants to be in a position of having to defend this kind of thing, and many of the most influential pro-Israel voices on the American side do not share the settlers’ extremist ideology.

“There aren’t two sides…it’s just one side terrorizing the other,” Israel Policy Forum’s Koplow said. “There are literally WhatsApp groups and Signal groups run by the Israelis perpetrating the violence where they themselves boast about it.”

On the White House side, there are also Trump priorities that the violence complicates. In his comments about the allied sanctions, Rubio said instability in the West Bank “has implications as well on our ability to make progress on Gaza, on the 20-point plan, and the Board of Peace that we’re very committed to.” However serious you think these initiatives are — there are very good reasons for skepticism — the White House seems to at least be publicly concerned about violence derailing it.

The key question going forward is what this political dynamic means for policy. While the Trump administration may not be willing to go out of their way to defend settler violence, they’re not exactly going out of their way to try and shut it down either. Huckabee’s comments about “terrorists” are symbolically significant, but the reversal of the Biden executive order speaks about the limits of this stance for actual policy. 

Democrats, by contrast, are clearly animated by the issue and willing to act on it. The question is what exactly those actions entail — especially if they retake Congress in 2026 and the White House in 2028.

Here, there’s real disagreement between the experts. 

Skeptics suggest that there may be less substance here than it appears. Targeted sanctions against some violent settlers might matter on the margins, but unless they go after the settlement enterprise and US-Israel relationship more broadly they’re leaving the root cause of the problem intact. In the worst case, a focus on settler violence specifically might even be counterproductive — functioning as a kind of pressure release valve that allows Democrats to satiate their increasingly Israel-critical base without actually doing much that matters.

Such a focus “creates, in a lot of ways, more problems than it solves,” the Arab Center’s Munayyer said. “It reinforces this idea politically that it’s too risky politically to hold accountable the actual decision-makers in the Israeli government, and the real processes at play here — which are driven by the state.”

Others see this as a misread of the political dynamics — one that Sachs of the Middle East Institute called “too cynical by half.” On this line of thinking, targeted action on settler violence is just morally necessary: the violence is really terrible, and if the United States can curtail it even on the margins it matters.

Moreover, they argue, something like sanctions on West Bank settlers opens the door to broader action: creating a real precedent for punishing bad actors in Israel that could create a kind of ratchet dynamic for future action taking on the deeper Israeli policies behind settler violence.

It’s hard to say in advance which of these views are right. Experts in both camps say there’s a lot of uncertainty here: we don’t know what will happen this November, let alone who the Democratic 2028 nominee will be or whether they’ll win. A Democratic trifecta with President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would likely be quite different than, say, a divided government with President Mark Kelly.

But either way, how Democrats handle the settler violence question could well be an indicator of where the party is going to go on the US-Israel relationship more broadly — and, by extension, the future for Israelis and Palestinians alike. 

At the Venice Film Festival earlier this month, the documentary NAZA received a 25-minute standing ovation. In Israel, it’s all anyone’s talking about, even though few have actually seen it. 

Made by two Israeli filmmakers, Rachel Szor and Yuval Abraham, the movie takes place on the rooftops of Tel Aviv, where 24 anonymous Israeli intelligence agents and soldiers discuss things that they did in Gaza and how they did them.

As Bilge Ebiri writes in his Vulture review of NAZA, “One officer recalls blowing up a building with 500 people in it to go after one target. They admit to knowingly wiping out entire neighborhoods, fully aware of the catastrophic human toll.”Another interviewee agrees that Israel is committing a genocide in Gaza. 

Since its reception in Venice, the film has faced harsh criticism from the Israeli government — with at least one politician issuing a call to revoke the filmmakers’ citizenship. 

Shany Littman is a journalist for Haaretz in Israel and has been reporting on the film’s reception. She spoke with Today, Explained co-host Noel King about the conversation around the movie in Israel. 

Below is an excerpt of the conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s much more in the full podcast, so listen to Today, Explained wherever you get podcasts, including Apple Podcasts, Pandora, and Spotify.

Have you seen the documentary NAZA?

I haven’t. I asked the PR person of the movie to send me a link and it’s not possible. I mean, considering the huge storm that came out, they’re probably rethinking how to handle the distribution of the film.

What I hear you saying is it’s safe to assume most people in Israel have not actually been able to see the movie. Is that right?

Yes, that’s correct.

But they are aware of what is in it. Let’s talk about the conversation around this movie in Israel. What’s the reaction been like?

You can find many different types of criticism from all sides of a political range. It’s not only right-wing people or people who are supporting the war. The claims are first that maybe the film itself is not verified. They have witnesses that are anonymous that they didn’t verify well enough. But I think most people — they just feel that this is an opportunity for all the pro-Palestinian, anti-Israeli, and [antisemitic] people in the world to attack Israel. Israelis from all sides are afraid of the way the world is seeing us at the moment. 

Is anybody in Israel saying, “Hey, we’re glad that they did it. We’re glad that they made this movie”?

Yes. There are people who are supporting Yuval and Rachel, the filmmakers, supporting their right to criticize, to investigate. As a liberal country, we should be able to investigate ourselves, to criticize ourselves. They are doing their work as journalists. 

There has also been a reaction from the Israeli government at a more official level. What has the Israeli government said about this film?

“There’s a really long history of films that were criticized, especially by different culture ministers. But I haven’t seen anything like this, like what is happening now. This is really frightening.”

The first person to react was the minister of culture. He said that the nationality of Yuval and the filmmakers should be revoked. That they should not be Israeli citizens anymore. There’s a really long history of films that were criticized, especially by different culture ministers. But I haven’t seen anything like this, like what is happening now. This is really frightening. I’m completely horrified by this. 

I already saw some clips on social media by people who were filming themselves where…you could see a house [in the background] and someone was saying, “You can all come here. This is the house of Rachel Szor’s parents. They live here and you can come and do whatever you want. I invite you all to come here and take revenge.” And there were several clips with the same message. 

I’m guessing they’re not coming back to Israel at the moment. I think it has become really dangerous for them to be here, and it’s a new level. I published an article about this. I didn’t do the movie. I just published an article supporting them in Haaretz and my mother is afraid that someone will attack me. The echoes of this event, they’re going very far now.

Are you frightened for the filmmakers if they choose to return? Do you fear for their safety?

Yes, absolutely. Especially because the elections are coming in a month. Many Israelis see this day as like the red line or the moment where we will be able to know if we can still live in Israel as a democracy, as a liberal democracy, or that the country has changed in a way that many [civil] rights and liberties that we think we have are gone. And that this country is not a democracy anymore. And so I think this is also why the blood is boiling.

This is a very, very tense and fragile moment. And for them I assume it is even more crucial and I hope they will not do anything that will put them in danger.